UK Diplomats Advised Regarding Armed Intervention to Overthrow Zimbabwe's Leader

Recently released papers reveal that the Foreign Office cautioned against British military intervention to remove the then Zimbabwean president, the long-serving leader, in 2004, stating it was not considered a "viable option".

Government Documents Show Deliberations on Handling a "Depressingly Healthy" Dictator

Policy papers from the then Prime Minister's government show officials weighed up options on how best to handle the "depressingly healthy" 80-year-old leader, who declined to leave office as the country fell into violence and economic chaos.

Following the ruling party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK participated in a US-led coalition to overthrow Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, Downing Street asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to develop potential courses of action.

Isolation Strategy Deemed Not Working

Diplomats concluded that the UK's policy of isolating Mugabe and forging an international consensus for change was failing, having failed to secure support from key African nations, notably the then South African president, Thabo Mbeki.

Courses considered in the documents were:

• "Seek to remove Mugabe by military means";
• "Implement tougher UK measures" such as freezing assets and closing the UK embassy; or
• "Re-engage", the approach advocated by the then departing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"Our experience shows from Afghanistan, Iraq and Yugoslavia that changing a government and/or its bad policies is exceedingly difficult from the outside."

The diplomatic assessment dismissed military action as not a "realistic option," adding that "The only nation for leading such a military operation is the UK. No other country (even the US) would be prepared to do so".

Cautionary Notes of Heavy Casualties and Jurisdictional Barriers

It warned that military intervention would cause heavy casualties and have "considerable implications" for British people in Zimbabwe.

"Short of a major humanitarian and political catastrophe – resulting in widespread bloodshed, large-scale refugee flows, and regional instability – we judge that no African state would agree to any attempts to remove Mugabe by force."

The paper adds: "Nor do we judge that any other international ally (including the US) would sanction or join military intervention. And there would be no jurisdictional basis for doing so, without an approving Security Council Resolution, which we would not get."

Long-Term Strategy Recommended

Blair's foreign policy adviser, Laurie Lee, advised Blair that Zimbabwe "will be a real spoiler" to his plan to use the UK's leadership of the G8 to make 2005 "a pivotal year for Africa". The adviser stated that as military action had been ruled out, "we probably have to accept that we must adopt a long-term strategy" and re-open talks with Mugabe.

Blair seemed to concur, noting: "We must devise a way of revealing the falsehoods and misconduct of Mugabe and Zanu-PF ahead of this election and then afterwards, we could try to re-engage on the basis of a firm agreement."

The departing ambassador, in his valedictory telegram, had recommended cautious renewed contact with Mugabe, though he understood the Prime Minister "would likely be appalled given all that Mugabe has said and done".

The Zimbabwean leader was ultimately removed in a military takeover in 2017, aged 93. Previous claims that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressure the South African president into joining a military coalition to depose Mugabe were vehemently rejected by the ex-British leader.